(SOURCE CLEAR IAS)
At least 20 people have died in clashes between Indian and Chinese troops along the disputed Himalayan border running along the Ladakh area of Kashmir. It is the first fatal clash since 1975 and the most serious since 1967.
Fighting broke out on Monday evening when an Indian patrol came across Chinese forces on a narrow ridge. During the confrontation an Indian commanding officer was pushed and fell into the river gorge, sources told the Guardian. Hundreds of troops from both sides were called in and fought with rocks and clubs. Several fell to their deaths.
Himalayan flashpoint could spiral out of control as India and China face off. The Indian Army said there were casualties on both sides, and confirmed three of its soldiers were killed during the clashes, with another 17 later succumbing to injuries.
Beijing has refused to confirm any deaths on its side, but accused India of crossing the border twice and “provoking and attacking Chinese personnel”. The editor in chief of state-run the Global Times, said he understood there had been Chinese casualties, but the People’s Liberation Army wanted to avoid “stoking public mood” by comparing numbers. (source the guardian).
POSSIBLE OUTCOMES:
The issue can be de-escalated through diplomatic dialogue between the two parties. Although this seems highly improbable as there have been loss of lives on both sides.
There may be a military standoff (as witnessed in Doklam,2019) which can be followed by inter-mediation between UN or some major power like France.
It is important to note the presence of Pakistan, China's "IRON BROTHER" and India's staunch enemy. It may pounce on this opportunity and enhance military presence near Indian administered Kashmir. These two nations have already engaged in warfare thrice in 1947, 1965, 1971 & 1999 with India emerging victorious on all the occasions.
The possibility of an all out war cannot be ignored.I am still skeptical about such drastic turn of events as China is aware about Sinophobia gripping the world psyche.
STANCE OF IMPORTANT COUNTRIES IN CASE OF DIRECT CONFLICT:
USA
This is the easiest to predict. Whichever might be the aggressor, I can be pretty sure that USA will OPPOSE China by all means possible. Be it through trade war, diplomatic rift, economic sanctions or even direct military action. For India, American support is guaranteed.
RUSSIA
Traditionally, Russia has been an all weather ally for India especially when America was supporting Pakistan during the Cold War. However, the current geopolitical climate is completely different. Russia now is a close partner of China. It has close economic ties with China. If a conflict does arise, Russia might REFRAIN from taking sides publicly. Even then, India can forget covert Russian assistance.
UNITED KINGDOM
The recent subjugation of Hong Kong by China failed to generate a strong British response. Boris Johnson only offered passports to Hong Kongers without any major diplomatic maneuver. So we can understand that Britain might give a SUBDUED response in case of war.
CENTRAL ASIA
This region is under the ambit of Russia and China. So states like Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan & Kyrgyzstan can join forces with China.
EU
Nations like France, Spain & Germany are less likely to side with China. America can influence their position. Chinese diplomats have also acted in ballistic manner swaying opinion.It has also supplied faulty medical equipment & masks in such turbulent times, inflating its profits. India on the other hand has been forthcoming in supplying medicines like Hydroxychloroquine. This has left a positive impression.
THE FIRST PARAGRAPH OF TODAY'S ARTICLE WAS DIRECTLY COPIED FROM THE GUARDIAN(AS CREDITED). THIS WAS BECAUSE I COULDN'T HAVE EXPLAINED IT ANY BETTER & ITS THE FIRST INSTANCE OF DIRECT COPYING SO APLOLOGIES. I HOPE TODAY'S ARTICLE CLEARED YOUR DOUBTS ABOUT THE CURRENT SITUATION.
THATS ALL LADS.
ON THAT NOTE, I SIGM OFF.