TIME AND TIME AGAIN, THE EUROPEAN UNION HAS MANAGED TO MAKE EVERY GEOPOLITICAL EVENT A DISASTER. HERE'S HOW THEY DID IT AGAIN.
To me, it seems like the foreign policymakers at Brussels have an obsession with failure. Countries like Russia, China and the USA have repeatedly managed to stupefy the European body. Before talking about the present, it is important to understand the past.
THE RUSSIAN INVASION
Vladimir Putin is a wily politician. Whenever his approval ratings take a hit, he manages to invade a neighboring country and add fire to nationalistic fervor, thus holding on to power. His actions in Georgia (2008) and Ukraine (2014) are a testament to his warmongering status & strategic thinking. Undoubtedly, these wars have also supplemented Russia's economic and geopolitical interests in the region creating a buffer and enriching trade with neighboring nations. In all these developments, the EU has failed to protect democratic and liberal nations in a land of autocrats and totalitarianism. Apart from worthless statements and condemnations, no concrete action has been taken to assist these flailing democracies.
THE RISE OF THE RED DRAGON
On the other hand in Asia, China has risen to superpower status on the back of endless exports to western nations, including the EU. These nations thought that they were being smart in outsourcing environment defying & standard of life lowering manufacturing to China. There was a general consensus that China would mend its ways and a liberal democratic government would rise in the communist nation. This facade has been dispelled recently with China electing Xi Jinping as President for life in 2018. Again, the EU continues to trade aggressively with China despite American insistence against it. Nations like Germany have remained oblivious and still maintain economic ties with China & Russia.
THE BELARUSIAN IMPASSE
Its been months now since popular mass protests in Belarus. The incumbent President has cracked down on the unarmed masses with brutal force and vitriol. Still, apart from freezing the financial assets of Lukashenko & his close aides, it has again been a silent show from EU & Co. on the other hand, Russia has been swift enough to provide both covert as well as overt support to Lukashenko. EU can learn a thing or two from Russia here.
THE CASPIAN DISASTER
The month-long war between Azerbaijan & Armenia, starting in the volatile Nagorno Karabakh finally came to a screeching halt after Russia and Turkey managed to find a truce. The Azeri blitzkrieg was halted after Moscow intervened to stop the bloody war. The biggest development apart from the redrawn map was the deployment of Russian troops as a "peacekeeping" force in the region. The Kremlin has craved the deployment of their troops here for decades. After assisting Azerbaijan's victory by providing hi-tech drones, Turkey too beseeches the same. The deployment of anti-EU forces so close to the European heartland can prove to be a disaster in waiting.
THE ROAD AHEAD
I have always been flummoxed as to why has the EU not achieved major geopolitical success? Despite its humongous economy & political will, it has consistently underperformed. Perhaps the lack of cohesion & difference in wants might be the major cause.
Say what you may about the British, their exit will have a major impact on the EU's global ambitions. London still has sway in the political corridors of major capitals around the world.
Brussels will have to impose its will whenever necessary. It cannot continue its passive style of diplomacy. Whether Europe rises to be a major player in global affairs or not, their own actions will determine that.
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