THE RISE AND FALL OF KONDRATIEV'S WAVE HAS BEEN SUCCESSFUL IN DETERMINING THE NEXT CENTRE OF GLOBAL AFFAIRS. HERE'S WHO IS NEXT.
We as the Human race seem to be blissfully unaware of what future times might bring us! We have attained such a high level of technological advancement that it is taking mere days to further supplement the rising tide of a particular technology in a significant way. For instance, the amount of improvement we are seeing in smartphone processors is mindboggling. Today's pint-sized devices have more computing power than the earlier computers of the 1970s which used to fill entire halls! And the incremental changes are happening rapidly on a regular basis.
My point in all this rambling is that it is of paramount importance for us to understand what the next big wave might bring us & where the centre of power might shift in the global economy!
Tracking back a bit in time, let's analyse the highs of the Kondratiev Wave:
The steam engine solidified Britain's imperial designs on the third world & paved the world for its manufacturing prowess, giving it an edge for at least a century.
Although invented in Britain, the Germans went on to dominate the steel industry, financing the First World War. The Ruhr Valley gave the Germans a rich source of essential ingredients to ramp up steel production.
Electrical Engineering modernized the American economy. It helped in building up a solid base from which the US economy achieved behemoth status.
The rise of Petrochemicals gave a lease of life to the drab desert lands of the Middle East. The petro rich nations forged ahead and went on to be the central figure of fossil fuel economies for decades, earning billions in the process.
The IT boom paved the way for Silicon Valley, the USA's hub of innovation & technological advancement which set the tone for the global conquest of American Brands like Google, Facebook, Apple and similar big wigs of the Silicon Valley. This American "Business" empire powered by superior technology brought financial riches to the USA.
So you can see that being at the top of the Kondratiev Wave is a real game changer! It can be an era-defining moment and can accentuate global ambitions. So what can the next wave be based upon? Here are my thoughts:
The AI revolution: Mastering Artificial Intelligence can pave the way for a rich future as AI is taking massive leaps & gaining real traction in the world of business, science, espionage as well as our daily lives! In my humble opinion, nations like China, South Korea & of course the USA are better positioned to be AI leaders due to their technological superiority, focus on R&D, skilled workforce & an inherent innovation synergy (an intangible quality) which very few nations possess.
A Renewable Hub: The Green Wave is coming! Fossils will soon be replaced by emerging renewable technologies like Solar, HydroPower, EV mobility & Wind Energy. In the renewable sector, domination can be achieved by two means: By dominating essential raw materials of renewable energy like solar panels, lithium, copper etc. China is a clear winner from this perspective. On the other hand, nations can emerge as major generators of renewable energy by quickly building tangible infrastructure to generate & transport excess energy. In this regard, countries like Australia, India & sub-Saharan African nations have an inherent geographic advantage.
A national business empire: Nations like the USA have emerged as an economic powerhouse on the basis of champion global businesses. My reasoning is that companies having a large global moat can drive profits to the home nation, generate substantial employment and create a cultural advantage. America can go on to further cement its massive headstart in this regard. India has a great domestic market & a really innovative startup ecosystem which is poised to blast off. China, Germany, South Korea & the UK too have great potential.
Space has been the one frontier that no nation has completely dominated! The last frontier is up for grabs with tremendous opportunity in satellite launching, asteroid mining (unfeasible with today's tech), interplanetary colonization (hello Mars) and setting up a "space base". I can only foresee 3 standout players in this category: the USA with its technologically sound NASA & disruptive private sector, India with its humongous cost efficiency & technical superiority & China with its massive government backing and structured policy focus. You can observe its recent boom below.
Last but not the least is the time factor. If you closely watch the title image, you would notice how the time-lapse between different waves has been diminishing. Hence, based on that observation, we can expect the next Kondratiev Wave to build up in the 2020s. It is my firm belief that the nation riding the next wave will emerge as the next economic powerhouse.
THANKS FOR READING! I HOPE YOU ENJOYED THIS FUTURE PREDICITNG PIECE. ATLEAST I LOVED WRITING IT :)