RECENT CLASHES IN THE EASTERN MEDITERRANEAN SEA HAVE FLARED UP THE DECADES OLD CONFLICT IN CYPRUS. HERE'S A LOOK AT THE PAST, PRESENT AS WELL AS THE FUTURE.
The world of Geopolitics has recently witnessed the revival of the Cypriot issue like the rise of a phoenix from the ashes. But to properly understand the crux of the issue, a sneak peek at the past is a must.
A HISTORICAL PERSPECTIVE
Till 1570, Cyprus was pre-dominantly under Christian rule. However that all changed when the Ottomans besieged the island nation with thousands of troops & conquered it with aplomb.
Feudalism was replaced by the millet system in which the Ottomans left the Christian majority to their own ways & the undesirable parts of the Turkic population were deported here, British style.
This created an influx of Turkish emigrants who dominated the new society.
British suzerainty was established in 1878 when the Ottomans fearing a Russian annexation leased the island to the rising naval power. The idea was that Cyprus would act as a buffer zone in case of Tsarist aggression.
The British used the island as a naval base to protect the prized Suez Canal which was the focal trade point for their India colony
.
The fall of the Ottomans after World War 2 lead to the official transfer of power with the British becoming the de facto rulers.
Feelings of independence became fervent amongst the local populace & the Greeks & Turkish Cypriots (who put a united front for this one & only time).
The British ceded power & a new constitution was formed giving the following seats in the parliaments on basis of ethnic lines giving the minority Turkish Cypriots a permanent veto, 30% in parliament and administration, and granting the three mother-states guarantor rights.
A MODERN PERSPECTIVE
Just like Lebanon, the world has learned it the hard way that sustaining democracy on ethnic lines is not a very viable option.
Things escalated quickly in Cyprus when the Greek Prime Minister mooted the idea of enosis. The Turks retaliated with threats of invasion.
In 1974, the Greek military carried out a coup d'etat and replaced the incumbent President with a pro-enosis leader.
Turkey reacted by attacking the Northern part of the island. To this day, the Turkish Army has a presence there & no solution to the impasse has been reached despite the establishment of a UN Green Zone & the presence of UN Peacekeeping forces.
A GEOPOLITICAL PERSPECTIVE
The reason for the sudden flaring up of the issue is the crisis in the Eastern Mediterranean. The quest for more oil & natural resources has pitted Turkey against Turkey & Greece,
The crux of the issue is the Exclusive Economic Zone. According to UNCLOS (United Nations Convention on Law of the Seas) 1982, says that a country may claim an area extending 12 nautical miles from its coast as its own territorial sea. Additionally, it can exploit 200 nautical miles of the water column beyond its coast as its exclusive economic zone. It means within 200 nautical miles, a country has access to all the natural resources within the area called the Exclusive Economic Zone. Now the trouble is, Turkey, Greece & Cyprus see their EEZ differently.
A FUTURE PERSPECTIVE
Turkey-Greece have a rivalry which can be aptly compared to that of India & Pakistan. Its historic, its obnoxious & its still raging. The political elite of both the countries have used it to their advantage and stayed in power.
After South China Sea, the Eastern Mediterranean has the potential to be another geopolitical hotspot with the involvement of all the regional players & global powers with the possible exception of China.
Its difficult to envisage a common consensus solving this conflict. Despite the fact that Turkey is the only nation in the world recognising theexistence of Northen Cyprus, it's military supremacy over its neighbors balances the thing.
As Erdogan's popularity tumbles, it is ever likely that he initiates a military campaign in Cyprus just like his adventure in Libya to garner support from the right wing vote bloc.
Recently, Turkey has openly sided with Pakistan in global forums like UNGA & OIC which has irked the Indian diplomats. They can retaliate by playing the Cyprus card & siding with Greece.
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