PAKISTAN HAS EMERGED TO BE A SERIOUS WINNER AFTER THE RECENT US-TALIBAN TALKS. HERE'S HOW
An eerie silence has pervaded the streets of Afghanistan. There is no constant gunfire, no bombardment & no American troops. Still, a shadow has crept upon the mountainous nation in the form of the Taliban. Yes, they are truly back in a more political avatar.
THE COMBATANTS
Before digging into recent developments, let's take stock of the many parties involved:
The Afghan Government
The Taliban
United States of America
Pakistan
ISIS
Russia
India
Obviously, there are other fringe players like Iran & Iraq but their influence has waned over the years.
A HISTORICAL BACKGROUND
The current mess in Afghanistan is the by-product of none other than the Cold War. In 1979, Afghanistan was under the spell of Communism. However, the rise of insurgency forced Alexei Kosygin to plan an invasion of Afghanistan. This was mainly due to the geographical significance of the mountain kingdom. USSR could not afford the fall of a communist state so close to its borders as illustrated in the map below.
This forced the Americans to encourage counter-insurgency against the Russians. Hence, through its base in Pakistan, USA encouraged the sprouting of several mujahadeen corps like the Taliban & the al-Qaeda. So in a way, to defeat the Soviets, America dug its own grave. And then a decade after the end of the Cold War, America invaded Afghanistan to wipe off the same militia it indirectly funded through Pakistan in order to avenge the 9/11 attack.
PAKISTAN'S POWERPLAY
Due to their former closeness with America & the groundwork done by their intelligence agency ISI, Pakistan has established a synergy with the resurgent Taliban. This puts Pakistan at an advantageous position in Afghanistan. Their position has been strengthened after the very recent US-Taliban talks which have resulted in an American withdrawal. Slowly, American troops are leaving the nation to the Taliban, at the end of which would be a mere 1500 troops. The appointment of Taliban's representative Mullah Baradar to these US & Government summits represent a major coup for Islamabad. Baradar has been an inside man for ISI for decades who had remained in a Pakistani prison for 9 years & had run covert operations in Afghanistan from there. So in a nutshell, the Pakistani military & ISI exercise considerable influence over the Taliban who for now seems to be a dominant factor.
THE INDIA FACTOR
India on the other hand has opted for a "softer" approach establishing cordial relations with the elected government of President Ashraf Ghani. India has also used "cricket diplomacy" to endear to the locals & have also used their cultural and historical ties to cement their bond. The Indians have also invested heavily in public infrastructure building tons of hospitals & bridges and also sponsoring the flashy new parliament building.
CONCLUSION
Despite all the assurances, it is unlikely that the Taliban will discontinue its assault on the pro-democracy government. On the other hand, they have brazenly increased the attacks on government-affiliated people (including a failed assassination of the Vice President) as well as buildings which serve as symbols of power.
As long as the Taliban hold on to their power, Pakistan will continue to hold sway in the proceedings.
The reason for all this Indo-Pak tussle is that Pakistan can use the Afghan soil as an epicentre of anti-India insurgency in Kashmir. New Delhi on the other hand can use a friendly Afghanistan to pressurise Pakistan from two flanks at the border, forcing Pakistan to reduce its Indian deployment. This is Geopolitics, my friends!
America has conducted one blunder after the other in this region. By planting the mujahadeen in the 1980s & now handing over the advantage to the Taliban, USA has ruined the lives of various generations of Afghanistan.
The most vulnerable party after the recent developments are the people of Afghanistan. In all this ensuing chaos, it seems like the most important element has been forgotten. The dark & gloomy days of Taliban rule can haunt Afghanistan again.
China has smartly entered into the region through its flagship one belt one road initiative. It remains to be seen how receptive the Taliban is of such debt-ridden endeavours.
Russia has engineered a very covert operation in Afghanistan in stark contrast to its Soviet era heydays where it emphatically rolled in with tanks and troops. As per the leaks in 2020, a special operation of the KGB had hired & funded a group of local mercenaries to assassinate American troops.
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