UNDER THE LEADERSHIP OF RECEP TAYYIP ERDOGAN, TURKISH FOREIGN POLICY SEEMS TO BE TAKING A RADICAL U-TURN. HERE'S HOW.
When Mustafa Kemal founded Turkey in 1923. he envisioned a modern Western leaning secular country which would have close links with all the major economies in a future world. Till 2002, it seemed like his vision had lived on in its truest sense. Then came Erdogan's current party , the pro-Islam AKP's rise to power. insecurities & a tumultuous change in domestic & well as foreign outlook from a Turkish perspective.
In today's article, I take a closer look at the identity crisis & the changing relationships of Turkey with its allies as well as foes:
THE OTTOMAN ANGLE
At its heyday, the Ottoman Empire was a force to be reckoned with. Its territories stretched into parts of even Europe & Africa. Such recollections of former glory never fails to arouse feelings of pride in a nationalist. And Erdogan knows this very well. His remarks like Turkey is the 'continuation' of the Ottoman empire are nothing sort of vote bank politics which can be likened to Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi's pro-Hindu remarks and antics. At a time when the economy is in doldrums, the Lira is depreciating, the pandemic is causing havoc & unemployment is rising, such populist moves are trademarks of shrewd leaders. The call to return to the former glory can be comfortably counted as clutching to power.
PRO-ISLAMIC INITIATIVES
In a continuation to the point above, Erdogan has used religion to seek support from the orthodox & the fanatics. He has outspoken the secular elite of the Turkish society (who are a minority) & aroused feelings of pride & prejudice amongst the majority. The conversion of Hagia Sofia from a museum to a mosque was a very symbolic move in this regard. This move represents Erdogan's pandering to the conservatives.
CREATING A SPLIT IN OIC
The OIC (Organisation of Islamic Co-operation) is a multilateral body spearheaded by the Saudis. Its members are nations having Islam as a major religion (57 members in total). The organisation claims to safeguard Islamic interests around the globe.
Turkey has new found ambitions of leading the Islamic world displacing the Saudis in the process. Already the Islamic world is being divided on Arab vs Non Arab, Shia vs Sunni & now between the KSA vs Turkey led bloc. Turkey has found able allies in Pakistan, Malaysia, Iran, Qatar & Iraq (All non-Arab Sunni majority against KSA). On the other hand, Saudi Arabia has dependable allies in Eqypt, UAE, Jordan, Bahrain & India. To understand the Pakistan-KSA angle, CLICK HERE.
FALLOUT FROM NATO
The Cold War era dynamics & Turkey's then western embracing mindset gelled well for a NATO membership. However, it seems like American & Turkish interests are on a collision course these days. Be it in the Eastern Mediterranean or in Libya. Turkish sentiments were rightly hurt when it sided with Greece. In such a scenario, Turkey is contemplating whether USA can be a reliable ally or not. This would have been unthinkable just a few years back. However it seems like Turkey is taking a more aggressive & emboldened approach towards foreign policy.
ABANDONING EU ASPIRATIONS
Since it inception, Turkey had aspirations of joining the European elite. It made all the efforts to join the European Union. It enshrined a secular character in the constitution, embraced western culture & abandoned the Ottoman roots. However. heavyweights like France made it clear that Europe was a "Christian civilization" and there was no place for a country like Turkey. The Turkish people as well as the political elites have now realised that all their efforts are now futile. Hence, Erdogan has abandoned the appeasement policies & now is on the route to forge a new path for his nation.
ANTAGONISM TOWARDS ISRAEL
When UAE & Israel signed the Abraham Accords, Turkey was one of the first nations to launch a scathing attack on the gulf state. Erdogan staunchly defended the Palestinian cause. In line with its Islamic leader strategy, Turkey has vowed to protect the interests of Muslims worldwide.
ADVENTURISM IN LIBYA
In one stroke, Turkey had a negative impact on its arch nemesis' geopolitical interests. It sent its military in support of UN recognised Libyan government acting against Gen. Haftaar who is supported by Egypt, KSA, France & UAE- all foes.
KASHMIR STANCE
The closeness between Pakistan & Turkey has improved rapidly in recent times. Due to this new development, Turkey regularly supports & initiates Pakistan's Kashmir cause at international forums like OIC & UN, This has irked India who feels this is a bilateral issue & ties between Delhi & Ankara have deteriorated at a frightening pace.
CONCLUSION
Its difficult to predict what the future holds for Erdogan & Turkey. However I am sure of the fact that it will adopt a more aggressive & reactionary foreign policy. To hold on to power, Erdogan will initiate more populist moves.
THANKS FOR READING. FOR REGULAR UPDATES, SUBSCRIBE TO OUR MAILING LIST BELOW. (WE PROMISE NOT TO SPAM!)