THE SOUTH CHINA SEA HAS BECOME THE THEATRE OF GEOPOLITICS & MILITARY SHOWMANSHIP IN RECENT MONTHS. IT SEEMS LIKE IT WILL BE THE EPICENTRE OF US-CHINA FALLOUT. HERE'S WHAT'S HAPPENING.
You have ambitions of becoming a superpower. You have the economic advantage. Your military is mighty & emboldened. So whats next? Well you decided to dominate your region & establish your own sphere of influence by projecting naval power and defying weaker nations. The YOU here is China. And this is exactly what it is doing in the South China Sea.
Location of South China Sea
WHICH COUNTRIES ARE INVOLVED?
WHY DOES CHINA WANT SOUTH SEA?
The first and the obvious reason is to spearhead its ambitions of becoming a superpower. It has to start dominating somewhere & the SCS is a very strategic place to do so.
The second reason is resources. SCS is home to an abundance of maritime resources like proven oil reserves of around 7.7 billion barrels. Natural gas reserves are estimated to total around 266 trillion cubic feet.. Apart from oil and gas, the most intensively exploited mineral deposits in the South China Sea are near-shore placer minerals of titaniferous magnetite, zircon, monazite, tin, gold, and chromite. It is also home to various fisheries. In a nutshell, SCS is worth billions of dollars in terms of resources.
Oil & Gas in the South China Sea
Another main reason for Chinese interests is trade. Sea is an integral means of international trade. As per the estimates of UNCTAD, around 80% of global trade is through shipping out of which one-third passes through the SCS. So you can imagine how important SCS for global trade & any nation controlling it can have unsurmountable impact on the pulse of global trade. Table 1.1 shows the vital importance of SCS to world trade. Column D highlights the % of goods traded through SCS in reference to total world trade i.e. goods through SCS/Total trade of goods * 100.
Table 1.1
WHAT IS THE DISPUTE IN SOUTH CHINA SEA?
As per UNCLOS (United Nations Convention on Law of the Seas) 1982, says that a country may claim an area extending 12 nautical miles from its coast as its own territorial sea. Additionally it can exploit 200 nautical miles of the water column beyond its coast as its exclusive economic zone. It means within 200 nautical miles, a country has access to all the natural resources within the area. So the lines in the map above (all except red of China & Taiwan) shows the Exclusive Economic Zone of various disputing nations.
However China (& Taiwan) disagree. They claim almost the entirety of the SCS through the 9 dash line (red line in map above). The 9 dash line is a historical claim. So it says it also owns the various islands in the SCS like the Spratly Island, Paracel Island & Scarborough Shoal. Hence, it claims the whole SCS as its Exclusive Economic Zone. It has built these artificial islands, equipped them as military base & brought them under their administration. The infographic below clearly enunciates the dispute.
RECENT DEVELOPMENTS
In 2016, the Philippines won a case against China at the Permanent Court of Arbitration awarding Philippines ownership of eastern Spratly Islands. However China has rubbished the ruling & openly defied it.
The US is heavily involved in the region with various naval deployments. It acts as a protector against Chinese naval aggression towards commercial ships, fishermen & navy of other nations. It claims it wants to uphold freedom of navigation. I think iit is involved here due to heavy economic interests (for example the trade as emphasised in table 1.1), geopolitical interests (suppress Chinese domination), diplomatic interests (protection of allies) & military interests (in case of confrontation with China).
Things have been heating up in 2020 as shown below.
BRIEF FINAL THOUGHTS
I think its very important that the US & its allies emerge on the top against Chinese domination for the continuation of free trade & protection of sovereign interests of all nations involved.
This was one of my most detailed piece so far. Hope you enjoyed it & understood the conflict. I tried to simplify the conflict as much as I could. Comment below if you have any doubts.
Cheers
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