The tables have turned in Kabul & American withdrawals ushers in a new era of autonomy in the region. Taliban taking charge of Afghanistan will have major ramifications on regional geopolitics. Here's how.
Analysing threats and evaluating their likelihood is vital to evaluate and thereby mitigate risks arising from any event. Such an event that brings much uncertainty for South Asia, Central Asia and West Asia region directly and for Europe and other global actors is - US withdrawal from Afghanistan and the Taliban taking on charge as a legitimate regime of Afghanistan.
Afghanistan, popularly regarded by Political Analysts as a graveyard of Empires as no power of the world has effectively conquered and governed the whole nation except for few Mongol and Indian Rulers. Eventually, they were also unable to dominate for a longer duration, similar to the USSR and USA. Afghanistan was once a most forward-looking state backed by liberal thoughts in the region under the last king Nadir Shah. Since then, Afghanistan went into a turmoil of power competition between the Cold War-era superpowers USA and USSR. Proxies operating from Pakistan, porous borders, cultural and linguistic ties with neighbours, ethnic and cultural diversity, a tribal population that wasn't much educated, rugged terrains, hills and Islam as majority followed religion best defined the region. Taliban, also known as the Students of Knowledge Movement, took control of Kabul and Afghanistan by early 1996. Taliban had a purist view of Islamic law; still, there was stability in Afghanistan.
Afghan fashion prior to the Soviet Invasion, a far cry from the Burkha clad days today.
Source: ED Times
But since 9/11, the war against terrorism waged by the USA led operations and supported by its NATO allies through Operation Anaconda and Operation Restore Freedom brought an extended period of uncertainty and a governance vacuum. Human rights violations were at their peak. The objectives of these operations were to break the terrorism nexus, take over the haven for Islamic terrorism, protect the mainland USA from further attacks and eliminate Osama bin Laden.
By 2021, most of these objectives are achieved, including the killing of Osama bin Laden in Abbottabad, Pakistan. Many things have changed from 2001 to now; the world order is anything but a unipolar world dominated by the USA. Inward looking policies and America First push fromTrump Administration and a more passive approach from American troops have also changed the directive.
Nation-states have done a significant part in the capacity building of Afghan Forces through Training and Arms Transfer and advanced directly through state armed forces and foreign private mercenaries. Neighbouring states such as India has undertaken significant steps for infrastructure development and protection of democracy in Afghanistan.
While on the other hand, as the Taliban is not a state actor, Defence procurement is not that simple for the Taliban. It managed arms through its vital networking within the Islamic terrorism nexus. The Taliban received unwavering support from Pakistan and others through training and arms transfer from an unregulated open arms market in remote Pakistan. Afghanistan is a contesting ground for India and Pakistan to have favourable regimes that are not against them. According to Yatish Yadav in his book, India: A History of India's covert operations mentioned that India has also undertaken covert operations in the past through R&AW to have a favourable regime that is not against Indian national interests.
Some of the Indian Infras Projects in Afghanistan
Source: indiatoday
Afghanistan means a lot for Indian national interests. All that happens in Afghanistan impacts India in many ways. It has profound implications for National Security, trade, Balance of Power in South Asia, counter-terrorism operations and Indian Foreign Policy at large. There are chances of a Civil war breaking out in Afghanistan. A significant number of the Afghan population, including students, are based in India. Though Europe received a considerable number of refugees from Afghanistan and Pakistan in the last seven years, India will not remain unattended. Under the political circumstances after the CAA-NRC protests, it is worth considering an imminent threat.
As the current trend suggests and if the Taliban takes on charge as a legitimate regime of Afghanistan. Then according to analysis, there is less probability of it being a democracy, and the rights of individuals and minorities are protected. Women participation in government can be restricted, and strict laws for blasphemy under Sharia law is registered to take over if the Taliban takes over Afghanistan. Drawing an inference from the destruction of Bamiyan Buddha in the past, it will not be accepting much of Multi-Culturalism.
Recently Taliban threatened its neighbours for hosting the USA and mentioning responsibility for all the misfortunes and difficulties that lie upon those who commit such mistakes. It brings into question the legitimacy of this threat and highlights the existence of cross-boundary networks, guerilla warfare tactics using IED blasts amongst destructive ones. There is a contestation over Durand Line (Afghan Pakistan Border), so it will not be a win-win scenario for Pakistan. China is a rising power and protection of its interests attached to CPEC, and BRI is at the nucleus and possibility of Taliban empowering Uigurs. It also allows China to humiliate the USA and target the West to exploit the global South. Europe wants a stable Afghanistan to keep a check on refugees. Russia wants to regain its space from the gap and governance vacuum caused in Afghanistan through USA withdrawal.
Still, despite all attached interests, chances of Civil war, mass human rights violation, clashes of trade interests, business continuity interests, a threat to national security and revival of the terror network could not make responsible and legitimate actors the nation-states enter the graveyard of empires.
The strong men of International politics are hesitant to enter. The neighbourhood first policy would not allow helping those in need against prospects of endangering relations with an upcoming regime. The garland of liberal values - Responsibility to Protect (R2P) is more or less in these circumstances could be held to as a responsibility to protect yourself against the Taliban.
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About the Author:
Tanishk Saxena has completed his Masters in International Studies from Symbiosis School of International Studies and has graduated BBA-LLB (Hons.) with a specialisation in Criminal Law. His research interests span Business Continuity Management, International Politics and Geopolitical Risk Analysis across Globe. He is currently associated with Geopolitik.
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