A GEOPOLITICAL RIVALRY IS BEING REIGNITED IN CAUCASUS BETWEEN THE UNFLINCHING GIANTS OF EURASIA- TURKEY & RUSSIA. HERE'S HOW.
It's often seen in the game of geopolitics that when you are a rising power, your once friendly powerful neighbour will do everything possible to arrest your ascent. Thats exactly the matter in the case of Russia & Turkey. A rising Turkey now has the ambitions as well as the means to stake a claim in Russia's sphere of influence.
Now let's take a closer look at where their interests are colliding:
CENTRAL ASIA
The authoritarian regimes of Central Asia have traditionally been under the influence of Russia. This is due to the fact that till 1991, they were a part of the Soviet Union. However since then the dynamics of this region have changed considerably. By gaining independence, these nations have the option to shape their own foreign policy. Countries like USA (By aid & loan), Turkey(By ethnic roots), Pakistan (By Islamic heritage), China (By economic power) & India (By military co-operation) have tried various methods to exert influence. However I can duly note that only Russia, China & Turkey have considerable say in the region these days. Turkey has successfully used the "ethnicity card" to create a friendly link with the people, establish strong diplomatic relations & provide sound assistance in various domains. Thus, they have displaced Russian influence to a certain extent. The map below shows regions having people of Turkic ethnicity, (Focus on Central Asia)
BLACK SEA
After the Russians invaded Crimea (part of Ukraine) in 2013, Turkey's hegemony on the Black Sea diminished rapidly. In want of a warm water port, Russia deftly annexed Crimea by a bogus referendum gaining access to Sevastopol and Yalta. Thus Russia could now establish maritime trade with the likes of Georgia, Bulgaria, Romania & even Turkey. In this instance, Russia entrenched upon Turkey's sphere of influence.
SYRIA
Turkey & Russia stand in opposing camps in Syria. Russia supports the dictator Bashar al Assad whereas the Turks support US backed rebels. I would suggest you click here for a better understanding of the conflict.
LIBYA
Libya is turning into another battleground for a Turkey-Russia proxy war. On one side is the UN backed government which is directly supported by the Turkish Army. Russia meanwhile seemingly having a fetish for dictators supports General Haftar by supplying arms and aid.
FUTURE PREDICTIONS
I think it is extremely unlikely that there will be direct conflict between Turkey & Russia.
The interests of both nations may collide again in case of a US-China faceoff. Turkey has been a staunch ally of US & EU (to gain admission) since the days of Mustafa Kemal Atatürk. Russia meanwhile is seemingly tilting towards Communist China due to western ostracism and sanctions. It has defended China's actions even during the coronavirus pandemic despite massive casualties at home!
It is interesting to note that both these nations have autocratic leaders in the form of Vladimir Putin & Reccep Erdogan. Both the leaders have poor approval ratings so a change in leadership cannot be discarded.
How well the political leadership of both the nations deal with the pandemic & economic crisis will have a major impact on future power projections. This is because a strong & healthy future economy means greater resources to set aside for geopolitical endeavours.
THANKS FOR READING. IF YOU ARE INTERESTED IN HOW RUSSIA'S LOPSIDED ECONOMY CAN DIVERSIFY FEEL FREE TO CLICK HERE.
CHEERS!
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