TRADITIONALLY ALL WEATHER ALLIES, INDIA-NEPAL TIES HAVE HIT A ROADBLOCK. RECENT DEVELOPMENTS SUGGEST THE WORST IS FAR FROM OVER. HERE'S HOW.
Religion. Geography. History. Politics. Diplomacy. These are the factors which have strengthened Indo-Nepal ties for decades. However there's a new chink in the armor: China. As China achieved exponential economic growth, its geopolitical influences have also risen accordingly. It has increasingly taken proactive steps to bring its weaker neighbors under its sphere of influence. But first let's take a look at the history:
INDIA'S INITIAL MISSTEPS
Its not like China entered the room & broke up the friendship of two best buddies in a second. India too, has committed some colossal blunders which have cost them a dependable ally.
India helped Nepal to sign a truce with its Maoist insurgents in 2004 which were causing massive headaches to the Kathmandu government. This established India as a major power player in the domestic politics of Nepal. India incessantly used this advantage to secure its security (China) & energy (hydropower) interests, This has irked the Nepalese politicians who feel New Delhi has bullied their landlocked neighbor.
In 2015, when Nepal was havocked by earthquakes, India imposed a blockade on the landlocked nation inspite of the humanitarian crisis. The main reason for such inhumane behavior was that India did not back the new constitution of Nepal. It felt that its interests were under threat as it was set to lose its iron grip on domestic politics.
India backed the Madhesis who were dominant group in southern part of Nepal. Being a minority they felt they were under-represented. India sensed an able ally & backed their dissent. Such a divisive policy was not appreciated by Nepal.
India made a major diplomatic & political blunder here. It used its economic dependence to advance its means. When Nepal needed their friend the most, it was ditched & exploited. This turned the sentiments of even the common man against India.
ENTER THE SUGAR DADDY
China sensed an opportunity here. It very rightly offered assistance in the nick of time. This helped in building a goodwill amongst the populace.
Nepal became a major component of the Belt & Road Initiative. Billions were poured in building basic infrastructure & establishing transport links between Nepal & China. Loans were sanctioned & economic co-operation enhanced.
Chinese embassy established contacts with ALL domestic parties (in sharp contrast of India backing the Congress). This has enabled China to break a political deadlock in 2019 & manipulate the formulation of a coalition. Obviously this indicates that Beijing's political influence has increased to a great extent.
THE BORDER DISPUTE
The current hot spot of the border issue is Kalapani, Lipulekh, and Limpiyadhura. This region (highlighted on the map below) is disputed by both Nepal & India.
Amidst growing public pressure. PM KP Oli after consultation with his cabinet decided to pass a motion in both the houses of the parliament declaring the disputed areas as an integral part of Nepal.
They have even sent the updated maps to the United Nations & Google. In a populist move, they also updated school textbooks on 18th September.
India has responded by declaring Nepali claims "baseless and historically inaccurate". India will have to tread the waters with caution keeping the severed ties in mind.
CONCLUSION
All is not lost. India still has a sizeable diaspora of Nepal within its borders whose families depend on remittances for sustenance. Plus despite Chinese efforts in building credible infrastructure, the economic dependence on India is still evident (as portrayed by the graph below).
China has definitely displaced India as the enforcer in domestic politics. It is important to note that the ruling party is essentially communist which aligns itself as a pro-Beijing party.
I have a firm suspicion that China has urged & coerced the Himalayan nation to take a more aggressive stance in terms of its border disputes. Reports have surfaced regarding how Nepal is coaxing residents of Indian border villages to declare themselves as Nepalis by offering money. The funds here are likely sourced from Chinese sources as well.
Nepal is a vital component of BRI. More construction projects, imports & investments can be expected in the near future. This bode wells for Nepal-China relations atleast in the short term.
India is losing key allies in its own backyard. The rise of the Rajapaksas in Sri Lanka, omnipresent turmoil with Pakistan, precarious position of ally Sheikh Hasina & rising Chinese presence in the Indian Ocean are all catastrophic developments. The Modi Government will have to play its cards right to emerge with some credibility in this maelstorm.
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