THE TURBULENT TIMES OF 2020 ARE FINALLY OVER. AS WE GET READY FOR THE YEAR AHEAD, HERE ARE CERTAIN GEOPOLITICAL EVENTS WHICH I PREDICT MIGHT OCCUR IN THE NEAR FUTURE AND SHAPE THE GLOBAL ORDER.
A MORE LIBERAL AMERICA
After four years of disrupting decades of American centered global institutions & international alliances, the election mandate of 2020 would provide some breathing space for internationalists. Biden is a firm believer in working with close allies & like-minded nations to counter common threats like climate change, terrorism & China. So the world can expect a tour down memory lane when America again asserts its control on WTO, WHO and even a dysfunctional NATO.
A MORE AGGRESSIVE CHINA
I believe we can expect China to take its "Wolf warrior diplomacy" to the next level by covertly and overtly exerting its power in the Himalayas, the South China Sea and the Indo-Pacific. & Asia. We can also further developments in the BRI project, especially in Africa China now has a modern powerful military equipped with state of the art weapons and egged on by ambitious national leaders. Xi wants China to be a global behemoth and 2021 will be the year when the red dragon establishes its own sphere of influence in its vicinity and makes its intentions crisp and clear.
A MORE VOLATILE MIDDLE EAST
After the assassination of Soleimeini and Fakhrizadeh, Iran would be raring to bite back. In such a scenario, its proxies in Yemen, Syria, Iraq, Lebanon and Israel would be more active and aggressive paving the way for more action and retaliation. Trump's "historic" Arab-Israel peace deals would mean nothing in such a scenario as Iran and the Arab states are staunch rivals. Other actors like Saudi Arabia and UAE are also planning to ramp up their defense and nuclear capabilities which would have disastrous implications for the region. Further along the south, Turkey is leading a new Islamic bloc which can cause further attrition.
A CRIPPLED EUROPE
After Brexit, I can foresee a"domino" effect in Europe where more and more nations question the legitimacy of such close collaboration. This coupled with the rise of right-wing parties across Europe can lead to dire consequences for the survival of the European Union. The past is witness to the fact that a broken and divided Europe can lead to conflicts that usually drag the whole world. The sagacity and election results of Western European nations like Germany and France which Pro-EU leaders like Angela Merkel (who is retiring) & Emmanuel Macron will determine the fate of the EU.
A CONFLICTED AND DEPRIVED AFRICA
Africa faces many challenges, which when combined may seem insurmountable. China's debt-trap diplomacy, regional conflicts in Ethiopia, Libya, DCR, Somalia and Sudan, the rise of Islamic radicals like al-Shabab, no vaccine plans and poor economic prospects will kill all momentum generated in the recent past. At a time when all major powers are busy in internal conflicts and crisis management, I foresee no major help coming for the Africans even though it is truly disheartening.
A SEARING INDO-PACIFIC
China's aggressive plans, ASEAN's quick recovery, deepening ties amongst the Quad and India's awakening to Chinese ulterior motives will shift the geopolitical gambit from the Atlantic to the Indo-Pacific. No more can Europe and America rely on economic power to control the international mandate. As tensions heighten, expect more activity here.
A BIG THANKS TO ALL MY READERS WHO HAVE BEEN A PART OF THIS SMALL COMMUNITY. BELATED NEW YEAR WISHES! ON BEHALF OF GEOPOLITIK, ALL I CAN SAY IS THIS: WATCH THIS SPACE! THERE ARE MORE EXCITING THINGS AHEAD.
TILL THEN, HAVE A GOOD DAY!
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