WE ALL HAVE OUR OWN THOUGHTS ON CHINA. BUT WHAT DOES THIS UPSTART THINK ABOUT THE WORLD?. HERE'S WHAT.
The Pandemic has changed geopolitical dynamics for the foreseeable future. A resurgent China is asserting dominance in the Indo-Pacific. An increasingly isolationist America elected a more international liberal to the Presidential hotseat. The Middle East realized the immense fragilities of the oil economy. And most importantly, the world witnessed "de-globalization" on an unprecedented level for the very first time. Now let's have a look at how China perceives different regions around the world:
THE TOP DOG
To gain the status of the sole superpower (or hegemon if you are into jargons), China will have to unsettle the United States as the numero uno. The victory of Joe Biden may thaw the ice but any resurrection in their bilateral ties should not be considered anything other than a mere outlier. The world should remember how Xi proclaimed China to be a "great nation" destined to be a superpower. In China's race to the top, their economic, military, diplomatic and technological tussle will determine on which side they will finish.
THE FORMER BEHEMOTH
At the north of China lies a former superpower who is slowly reasserting itself & very un-covertly expanding its sphere of influence through its violent exploits in Ukraine, Georgia & Armenia, China & Russia share a very circumstantial relationship. Both are wary of the west. Both are huge economies with their respective sphere of influence. Both have a strong military & an autocrat at the helm. And both have strong communist ideologies. Seems too good? Some day or the other, their interests are going to clash. When things will go haywire, we can expect the situation to spiral off quickly & escalations to reach dangerous levels. This can be attributed to their close proximity & vested interests in Central Asia, Eastern Europe, South Asia and beyond. This ticking time bomb will have global repercussions.
THE FORGOTTEN LAND
Africa & China relations have been completely revamped in the past decade. China has emerged as a major lender for economies of various sizes in Africa. It will leverage this unsustainable loan spree, dubbed by many as a "debt trap", to gain consensus in international forums like UNGA & foster a profitable & favorable business equation for its homegrown companies like Huawei & Tencent which are being increasingly shunned. From an economic perspective, Africa may even emerge as a low-cost manufacturing hub for Chinese companies, akin to China of late 1900s & early 2000s.
THE SLEEPING GIANT
Despite its immense size & economic might, the European Union has been a sort of "afterthought" in global affairs as a whole. Due to its consensus-seeking style, Brussels is never able to act decisively and swiftly. Interestingly, an EU- China trade deal seems to be set in motion. If we set the current Sinophobia aside, this should not be surprising as Europe has had very healthy & expansive trade relations. This development can be attributed to Trump's disruptive stance towards multilateral institutions like NATO & EU itself. How well the US responds & stifle the deal (if it can) will determine on which side of the fence EU has the utmost confidence in, the challenger or the incumbent. China sees the EU as a major source of trade as well as future technological as well as diplomatic clout.
THE UPSTART NEXT DOOR
If there is one nation in the Chinese periphery that can demolish Xi's ambitions, it is India. If India achieves its economic potential, it can emerge as a serious contender in the Indo-Pacific as well as the middle east. India is a much more Western-friendly & democratic nation that can act as a true counterweight against the red dragon. China has unleashed the PLA on India's northern borders, is strengthening its arch-nemesis Pakistan and sponsoring a seperatist movement in the northeast. This move has diverted India's efforts from economic recovery to military exploits, stretching the army. Perhaps, after the United States, it is India that has the acumen & potential to beat the Chinese at their own game.
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