IT'S BEEN TWO MONTHS NOW & BELARUS IS STILL ROCKED BY PROTESTS. THE PEOPLE HAVE NOT GIVEN UP, NOR HAS LUKASHENKO. HERE'S WHY.
Mass protests. Police brutality. Torture videos. Political arrests. Public speeches. These have become a regular occurrence in the East European nation. It seems Covid is nonexistent in Belarus. These events have been cynically repeated since the last two months to no avail.
THE FRAUDSTER
Mr. Lukashenko is an example of a classic despot. Power-hungry & desperate, the man has been at the helm since 1994 when the last vestiges of the Soviet era were being wiped from Belarus. Since then, he has lead Belarus from a Soviet satellite state to a personal dictatorship. Counted by many as a wily diplomat, Lukashenko has remarkably struck a balance in a geopolitically tense neighborhood of Russia, formulating a strong relationship with the United States & other western powers reducing overdependence on their powerful neighbor. However recently, the masses have turned against him due to a fraudulent election. A rigged election showing a landslide victory for the incumbent leader has angered the masses & people have turned against him.
THE DOWNFALL
The root cause of his downfall has been the catastrophic handling of the pandemic. Instead of declaring lockdown & beefing up health infrastructure, the President in his own words encouraged people to "drink vodka and go to the sauna to stay healthy". This along with a flailing economy powered his descent. Another factor has been increasing Russian influence in the Belarusian state of affairs. Already, Belarus is heavily dependent on Russia in terms of economic progress as highlighted below. This along with talks of Russian reunification has not enamored Lukashenko to the public.
RECENT DEVELOPMENTS
A troika of female opponents has come to the fore against Lukashenko. At their head is Svetlana Tikhanovskaya, a reluctant candidate who has grown increasingly confident in her challenge to Lukashenko. The wife of a popular political blogger who was arrested when registering for the presidential elections, Svetlana has taken the mantle from her husband & emerged as a force to be reckoned with. She has teamed up with Maria Kolesnikova, Babaryko's campaign chief, and Veronika Tsepkalo, the wife of the former diplomat turned opposition politician.
Vladimir Putin continues to staunchly support strongman Lukashenko. This is partly due to suppress political movements in a neighboring nation.
Lukashenko has imposed crackdown on the public protests by jailing opposition leaders, arresting protesters & brutally dismantling large crowds.
CONCLUSION
Putin will play a pivotal role in determining Belarus' fate. It remains to be seen whether he responds brashly with force (like in Ukraine, 2014) or in a more covert manner. Whichever the method, he will have to face repercussions at home amidst a crippling economy, rising COVID cases & signs of dissent (as observed in the eastern region of Khabarovsk). Major powers like USA & EU have had a subdued response to the protests, only imposing sanctions against Lukashenko & his aides and allies. On the other hand, countries like Poland have taken the initiative and welcomed political asylum seekers.
The year-end might just as well spell the end for Europe's last dictator.
MERCI ARDENT READER!
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