ISRAEL & UAE- TWO STAUNCH ENEMIES OF THE PAST, JUST SIGNED A PACT. IS THIS A FALSE DAWN OR WILL THE ACCORDS BRING PEACE? HERE'S WHAT MIGHT HAPPEN.
UAE became the first gulf country to establish diplomatic ties with Israel. The other two Islamic nations were Bahrain(1976) & Jordan (1999). However this news is of much greater significance as UAE is a more traditional & respected Islamic country than the latter two.
Before delving into the consequences & future implications, let's take a look at the past:
THE PRELUDE
In 1947, UN decided to partition Palestine into 3 entities: Israel, Palestine & the city of Jerusalem. Its important to understand that Jerusalem being the holy city of Jews, muslims & Christians alike has been the flashing point of the conflict.
Due to their horrific treatment in the holocaust, the Jews were awarded so much territory.
The Arab countries were infuriated & declared a war in 1948. It lead to dogged fighting but Israel retained the majority of its territories.
Since then many wars have been fought with Israel coming out on top most of the time. Most famously, Israel toppled the combined forces of Iraq, Egypt, Syria & Jordan in just six days in 1967.
Israel has also sent Jewish settlers into Palestinian territory periodically & then annexed them with brute force.
In 2020, Israeli PM Benjamin Netanhayu had plans to annex the West Bank.
KEY POINTS OF THE ABRAHAM ACCORDS
On the condition that Israel would "halt" the annexation of West Bank (see map above), UAE was ready to establish official diplomatic relations.
The key word here is "halt". it means that Israel can still annex the West Bank in the future.
The Trump administration has declared this as a sort of a diplomatic coup back home. I believe this move was aimed at improving Trump's prospects of re-election in the november elections.
Countries like Saudi Arabia, Oman (the mediator of the region), Bahrain & Jordan have welcomed the decision.
However Iran (which has the proxy outfit Hamas in the Gaza strip), Iran (geopolitical rival of USA & Israel) & Turkey (ambitions of usurping KSA as leader of Islamic world) have condemned the decision.
For Israel, this is a win win situation. It can annex West Bank in the future and it gets recognition from a gulf country.
Turkey is ostensibly taking a rigorous anti-Israel stance. This is in line with its recent foreign policy of "protecting Islamic interests". The fact that NATO has ditched Turkey in the Western Mediterranean Sea siding with Egypt & Greece has infuriated Ankara. So its colliding against USA here.
China will drag itself into the complex politics of the Middle East id it does not downgrade its bilateral relations with iran. Beijing recently signed a 400 billion dollar trade deal with Iran.
As each day passes. the prospect of Palestine as a nation dwindles. The Abraham Accords are a major blow for Palestine as its former ally UAE has now recognised Israel.
India is one of the rare countries to have very strong relations with UAE, Israel as well as Saudi Arabia. It can use this unique opportunity to initiate peace process and exert influence on a global state.
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