WHEN TSARIST RUSSIA & IMPERIAL BRITAIN PLAYED A GAME OF SHADOWS IN 19TH CENTURY ASIA. TODAY, AMERICAN WITHDRAWAL HAS CREATED NEW POSSIBILITIES. HERE'S HOW.
Russia and Britain were carving out their empires in Asia. Both had expansionist designs. Asia was the land of riches. Both the powers wanted a larger piece of the pie. This was the situation in the 19th Century.
THE GEOGRAPHIC SITUATION (source: self study history)
SIMPLIFIED TIMELINE:
The crux of the situation was that the Russians had expanded rapidly in Central Asia annexing present western China and Tajikistan.
The "jewel of British imperial crown" India was under perceived threat from Russia. (these fears were baseless as proven by historical archives).
Afghanistan (the yellow portion on the map) was the key rook in this game of chess.
Hence, Britain fought two wars with the Afghans in which it was heavily decimated. The Anglo-Afghan War was fought from 1839 till 1842. After defeating Britain, Afghanistan earned the moniker of "graveyard of empires" keeping in mind the historic failure of the Soviets & many previous great empires.
Due to the loss, the British had to cede their ambitions of Central Asia.
Russia on the other hand went on to conquer parts of Persia (Iran) and legitimized its hold on Central Asia till the fallout of the Soviet Union (1991).
The main cause of British loss was lack of support from London and betrayal of Dost Mohammad, the Afghan leader.
The Russians were smart enough to sign a treaty with Britain deciding the Wakhan Corridor as the boundary of their sphere of influence. This protected their interests & a new entente was established staving off further direct conflict.
THE WAKHAN CORRIDOR (source scroll.in)
THE NEW GAME OF SHADOWS
American withdrawal from Afghanistan has kicked off a host of possibilities in the region. A number of middle powers and China are willing to act covertly as well as overtly in the country to secure their interests & establish real influence in the country.
Perhaps the most powerful player in Afghanistan is Pakistan (keeping American withdrawal in mind) due to the links between ISI, the Pakistani military & the Taliban. Since the 1980s, Pakistan has dealt a strong hand in the mountainous country to avoid a "double choke" i.e. being surrounded by enemies from both sides. Pakistan also helped the USA in propping up the mujahideen to combat Soviet forces. Hence, the advantage.
Iran is also willing to use Afghanistan in its Middle Eastern chessboard. The Israel-Arab convergence has put Iran in a tough spot. An Afghan alliance would prop up an ally. However, the Taliban is wary of such overtures and has strongly resisted Persian meddling successfully so far.
China has real incentive to get involved in Afghan affairs. A stable Afghanistan will allow OBOR's flagship CPEC project to be completed peacefully. Even peace is sustained, China is ready to pump in billions to make Afghanistan the next bastion of the Belt & Road Initiative. A successful diplomatic surgical strike in Afghanistan will propel China's status as a rising superpower in Western Asia as well, attracting further cooperation & mutually beneficial mechanisms like treaties, arms deal & energy sharing.
India is in a bit of a conundrum as to how to proceed in Afghanistan. It enjoys great people to people ties due to its years of developmental work. However, it will have to shed its reluctance of dealing with the Taliban. This is because Pakistan has intentions of funnelling radical groups to disputed Kashmir (just like the later 1980s). This can cause real disruption in the disputed J&K.
Source: Skillsphere Education
What people tend to forget is that the local powers i.e. the Ashraf Ghani government & the Taliban are not mere pawns. They are powerful entities who can go the route of strategic autonomy easily.
Keeping the historical perspective, Russia too has been heavily involved in the region. A stable Afghanistan is what Russia needs right now as it begins its Ukrainian assault & continues to support Bashar al-Assad in Syria & Lukashenko in Belarus.
CONCLUSION
The failure of the Doha 2020 Peace Talks has exacerbated matters in the region. The Taliban has been postponing milestone initiatives & has regularly attacked civilians with disregard to the agreement. Biden is also coming under intense pressure to execute the complete withdrawal of American troops. Whatever happens in the future dear reader, always remember:
America funded & provided arms to terrorist groups in Afghanistan to overthrows the Soviets in the Cold War era. The same terrorists attacked in 9/11 which forced the American to pour more than a trillion dollars to fight the same terrorists it supported. And even after 20 years of intense battle, the war rages on.
Enough said.
Stay safe.