AS CHINA ADOPTS A MORE AGGRESSIVE STANCE, THE EAST CHINA SEA EMERGES AS A NEW GEOPOLITICAL HOTSPOT. HERE'S HOW.
The year 2020 has made one thing clear. China wants to be a global superpower. And fast. Hence, it is adopting an aggressive expansionist policy unseen since the imperial ages and Nazi pipedreams. To attain its ambitious goals, China has adopted a naval domination plan. On its eastern plan, the onus has been on the Senkaku Islands.
Which nations are involved?
Japan
China
United States
Taiwan/Chinese Taipei/ROC
The crux of the dispute - Senkaku Islands
Senkaku Islands lie in a strategic location in the East China Sea. In case of a future conflict in the region, Senkaku Islands can play a pivotal role in determining the outcome of a direct military conflict. So holding onto them makes sense geopolitically.
Senkaku Islands can also change the Exclusive Economic Zone of a nation. As per UNCLOS (United Nation Convention on the law of thes seas), EEZ refers to an area (200 miles) within which a nation has the sole access to its natural resources. So the country controlling Senkaku Islands will have control over all the natural resources around it.
The islands can also be used as a military base by the ruling country. thus the islands can also act as a buffer zone or any extra layer of defense. An example is the string of pearls geostrategy used by China in the Indian ocean.
Article 9 Japanese constitution (drafted by Americans) forbids the use of military in solving international disputes. If the government maintains this article, then the American military has guaranteed protection of Japanese interests. Hence, the American Navy is drawn into the conflict.
Other than military & geopolitics, there is the lure of resources. They have very rich fishing zones. Also there is the potential of tremendous oil & gas reserves. The Okinawa Trough (in red below) has potentially 1-2 trillion cubic feet of natural gas reserves.
CONCLUSION
The control of Senkaku Islands is a must in order to exert dominance in the East China Sea. If China wins it, there is no guarantee of freedom on navigation in the region.
Personally, I think Japan has the rightful claim over the Senkaku Islands. This is because since 1897, they have historically controlled it barring a brief American ownership in the World War 2 period.
I think its unlikely that a direct military confrontation is possible in this region. The chances are much higher in the more volatile & vital South China Sea.
Taiwan has virtually no chance of controlling Senkaku Islands due to the presence of China.
THATS IT FOR TODAY, HOPE YOU LIKED IT. IF YOU HAVEN'T READ IT ALREADY, HERE'S THE LINK TO MY SOUTH CHINA SEA REPORT.
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