AS GEOPOLITIK HITS ARTICLE NUMBER 100, WE TAKE AN INDEPTH LOOK AT HOW INDIA CAN MANUVRE THIS INCREASINGLY COMPLEX GAME OF FOREIGN POLICY. HERE'S HOW.
India stands at a crossroad. It has transitioned from a nascent power to a region dominator. Now, it has remained stagnant at this status for a decade now. It has been unable to expand its sphere of influence outside of South Asia. The policy nerds at New Delhi have their task cut out for themselves in an increasingly polarized world and more assertive China. Given below is my regional & country wise profile from an Indian perspective.
AMERICA: A FRIEND IN NEED
In the recently declassified 10 page document, American intentions regarding the Indo-Pacific were laid bare. USA considers India to be an integral ally in the Indo-Pacific in a bid to keep a resurgent China in check. Washington is ready to deepen diplomatic as well as defense ties with New Delhi. In such a cohesive environment, the Indian Government would be foolish to not signal a positive affirmation. America may be slowly losing its status as a hegemon but it is still a mighty force to be reckoned with. Its dollar dominance, network of western allies, cutting edge military, resilient economy and status as a hub of business & innovation is unrivaled around the globe. America would be a vital asset in countering the Chinese threat and perhaps, it would be the driving force in deepening their bilateral ties. A strong Indo-US ties are good for businesses in both the nations as well. I can foresee a more healthy bilateral relation brewing.
CHINA: RED DRAGON REDIFINED
Recent events have been a death-knell for prosperous Sino-India relations. In a shambolic repeat form 1962, India was again duped by a "friendly" China and backstabbed at the border. Like his predecessor Mao Zedong, Xi worked his magic and banked on his personal equation with Modi to weather the storm. The only difference from 1962 was a more resilient, better equipped and politically strong willed India who did not shy away from escalating tensions at the border. Despite all its app bans & import substitutions, the hard fact is that complete decoupling from China is a mere fantasy (even for the United States). The economic dependence of the world on China is so intricate, the untangling would be a pipedream for any policymaker, at least in the medium run. From an Indian perspective, China is the thorn to its path of prosperity. Beijing is well aware that a stronger India is a great threat to its superpower prospects. Hence, it is waging a war in the Himalayas, funding Naxalites in the Northeast, strengthening its staunch rival Pakistan and tilting Russia away from New Delhi. India has already countered the string of pearls by its own network of ports & treaties, thus nullifying the trap. But now, China has resorted to overt rather than covert means to damage India. No longer is the façade of friendship out in the open. India will have to seek global attentions, form alliances with like minded nations (like the Quad), improve its military but most importantly focus on economic development to outmaneuver China and get out of its endgame in the Himalayas.
SOUTH ASIA: LOVE THY NEIGHBOURS
Historically, South Asia has been Delhi's own backyard. However, recently the equations have changed recently. Bangladesh is miffed due to the Teestha Water Sharing breach & treatment of Muslims in India. Sri Lanka does not like India's repeated attempted to bring up the Tamil minority question. Additional, current brothers in power, the Rajapaksas still remember how India had made them lose the 2016 elections. Nepal, on the urging of new big brother China has had a border dispute with India and now faces domestic political turmoil of its own. The less said about Indo-Pak relations, the better. Astute readers would have noticed how India's current position in South Asia is not very rosy, and is due to its own quest for meddling in neighbor's internal politics and initiating regime changes. To regain the lost ground, India must stop this addiction. It also needs to invest in their economies, conduct joint military drills, resolve decade old conflicts, establish rapport with leaders & build confidence in general. Despite its global ambitions, India first needs to re-establish its supremacy in the neighborhood.
RUSSIA: THE FORGOTTEN COMRADE
Since its independence, India as well as the then Soviet Union have shared fruitful relations. Soviet Russia has always stood with India in its time of need, during its many wars with Pakistan. Defense Co-operation has been a cornerstone of their relations & to this day, more than 60% of Indian armed forces is equipped with Russian sourced weapons. However, their relations have cooled off a bit recently. Moscow's increasing closeness with China has unnerved many in India. India's tilt towards USA is also against Russian interests. Despite these difference, poignant memories of the bygone era are enough to resurrect their ties. New Delhi must seek a balance between their friend in need & the forgotten comrade just like the Cold War era.
EU: THE MONEYMAKER
India-EU relations have never been about diplomacy and geopolitics (with the worthy exception of France & to a certain extent the UK). The point of focus has always been trade & commerce. And rightly so. Both of the parties are economic heavyweights with fledgling demographics and an interesting startup scene. Later this year, negotiations will begin for an FTA between India & the EU. The top brass at Brussels is notorious for being a tough negotiator so India has a really bump road ahead in this regard.
MIDDLE EAST: A COMPLEX EQUATION
Of all the world powers, India is perhaps the only one which has cordial relations with all the warring parties be it Iran, Saudi Arabia, Afghanistan, Israel or the UAE. India can leverage this status quo to act as a mediator & resolve deathly conflicts, thereby elevating its status in the process. So far, India has played a very passive role in the region staying away from the conflicts. Despite all the hoopla, Trump's peace deals between Israel & several Arab states are nothing more than a façade and are far away from on the ground reality. Hence, the scope is there for India to seize the initiative.
AFRICA: THE LOST GROUND
Since its inception, India has had a very passive approach in Africa. Except Nehru's Non Alignment Movement, India's diplomatic efforts have been muted. The rise of China's debt trap diplomacy has pushed India to the brink. Africa is a major component of China's Belt & Road Initiative and India has tried to negate its repercussions by all means necessary. In my humble opinion, India can partner up with Japan who has major interests here in Africa. Japan along with the United States have been very aggressive in setting up infrastructure projects of their own at comparably very low interests. Although India has raised African concerns at the UNSC as a non-permanent members before, a more proactive effort with better bilateral relations with atleast some of the bigger regional players like Nigeria, Egypt, Ethiopia and South Africa.
FRANCE: SHATTERING NOTIONS
The French have turned out to be a major ally for India recently. Common interests & a sense of awe about each other's culture & history have smoothened the transition from mere allies to a close knit alliance. French weapons (Raffaele jets)have emerged as a source of pride for Indians. Both the nations are founding members of the International Solar Alliance. With a weaker EU and the impending exit of Angela Merkel, expect France to have a greater say in the policy halls of the European Union. In this regard, France can turn out to be a strong ally. With growing synergy between Modi & Macron, things are on the up for Indo-French ties.
UNSC: AT THE BIG TABLE
India is set for its 8th stint as a nonpermanent member at the United Nations Security Council. Considered by many as the epitome of international diplomacy, this stint will perhaps be a good time for India to advance its interests. A more democratic UNSC member composition, a global mechanism against terrorism, resolving the Kashmir Issue and advent of renewable energy would be some of the agendas for India. However, I believe it can use this platform stun their rivals by raising sensitive concerns like Balochistan, Tibet & Uighur minority camps. The fact is that China & Pakistan have never shied away from defacing India. It is time that India reciprocates in a civil & calculated manner. By partnering with like minded nations on the permanent seat like the UK, France and USA, A good performance for the next two years can enhance its prospects of getting a permanent seat at the UNSC. And for that to happen, India will have to focus on global issue that matter.
SOUTHEAST ASIA: ACT EAST
Currently embroiled in a maritime conflict with China in the South China Sea, Southeast Asia represents a golden opportunity for India to suffocate China. China's domineering activities in the region have prompted nations like Vietnam to go hostile. In such a scenario, India can forge defense ties and even send naval vessels to patrol the sensitive area. Through the Andaman & Nicobar Islands, India does have a legitimate interest in the region. However so far, India has shied away from taking these steps. Further escalation at the Himalayas can prompt New Delhi to cut off the Malacca Strait (a passage through which majority of Chinese trade passes which is shown below) and deploy the navy in the South China Sea. India also has historical & cultural links with the region. There is a potential for more trade worth billions. A stable & prosperous SE Asia is a must for a stable & prosperous India.
PARTING THOUGHTS
The rise of Communist China has ensured that the world would be multi-polar for the ensuing decades. To translate its economic might into geopolitical & diplomatic strength will be a great challenge for India in this competitive climate. However, the nation has had a knack of proving its doubters wrong time & time again. Its forthcoming action in the arena of foreign policy will determine its place in the global pecking order. The world awaits the rise of India.
ON A PERSONAL NOTE
What started as a mere timepass is a full blown hobby now. I am happy & proud to announce that Geopolitik has 100 articles all written by yours truly. This is a truly remarkable milestone which had been unforeseen from my side when I started this. I would like to thank the select few who read the articles & expand mine as well as your knowledge.
See you tpmorrow.
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